The Ignorant Investor

Major papers are running stories this week about how there are signs all around of economic recovery. I remain pessimistic, but perhaps that's because I'm pessimistic about everything.

Ford reported a sizable profit for the first quarter of this year. Sales are up from the same period last year, so not all the profit is due to aggressive cost cutting. Demand looks higher. However:

Booth said the company is seeing some economic recovery, especially in the U.S., but the recovery isn't exceeding Ford's earlier prediction of 11.5 million to 12.5 million in total U.S. sales for the year. That would be up from 10.4 million in 2009 but far below sales of more than 16 million five years ago.

This is a move off the bottom. So it is a recovery. But it's not a snapback.