The Ignorant Investor
Ignorance Can't Stand in the Way of My OpinionFriday, May 19, 2006
My Amazing Prediction on Gold Comes True in a Week
Scroll down a couple of posts, and you'll see that back on May 11 I said I was fighting a strong urge to pick up some GLD shares. My strong desire to buy, I noted at the time, was a very bad sign. By the time I'm interested in buying, the horse is usually bolting out the barn door. Guess what?
Price of GLD share then: High=$72.51
Price of GLD share today: 1 pm=$65.24
That's a 10% drop in a week. Ouch. Had I bought into GLD at the time, I would have stopped out after a 5-7% loss. Factoring in transaction costs, I'd have had a nasty little loss. So I dodged a bullet there.
However, there's good news for gold bugs out there. I've changed my mind and am now comfortable not owning gold. So take heart: I've been wrong about gold so often that the next move in gold has a very strong chance of resuming its leap skyward. To believers, the current drop in the price of gold is probably only a short term correction that represents the three most beloved words in all the brokerage community: A Buying Opportunity.
We'll have to wait even longer to see who is right. Like a week.
Price of GLD share then: High=$72.51
Price of GLD share today: 1 pm=$65.24
That's a 10% drop in a week. Ouch. Had I bought into GLD at the time, I would have stopped out after a 5-7% loss. Factoring in transaction costs, I'd have had a nasty little loss. So I dodged a bullet there.
However, there's good news for gold bugs out there. I've changed my mind and am now comfortable not owning gold. So take heart: I've been wrong about gold so often that the next move in gold has a very strong chance of resuming its leap skyward. To believers, the current drop in the price of gold is probably only a short term correction that represents the three most beloved words in all the brokerage community: A Buying Opportunity.
We'll have to wait even longer to see who is right. Like a week.
posted by Worker 17 # 1:45 PM 
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