The Ignorant Investor

NEW YORK - Consumers shrugged off higher gasoline prices in April and sent a widely watched barometer of consumer confidence to its highest level in almost four years, a private research group said Tuesday.

But the New York-based Conference Board warned that if fuel prices continue to rise, it would cast a pall on consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity.

All people are talking about is rising gas prices, Bush's approval numbers are in the toilet, and polls asking about the economy show people think it's going downhill and that the housing market is about to crash. Yet somehow, the index shows the highest confidence level in four years.

Any sane statistician will constantly compare an index against other evidence to see if it matches reality. But the Conference Board is currently our national economic cheerleading unit, so they're restrained by a reality of their own.