The Ignorant Investor

Ignorance Can't Stand in the Way of My Opinion

Thursday, September 29, 2005

 

When does the camel's back break?

Natural gas prices have shot up in the wake of the hurricanes. Now, says the New York Times:

Americans will pay an average of $400 more for their natural gas this winter than last year, with average bills jumping to $1,130, according to estimates by the Department of Energy. But these estimates might prove too low and are likely to get updated when the government issues its winter outlook next month.


I heat with oil rather than gas, but it doesn't make much difference. Both fuels are going to cost a lot more this year than they did last year. Between rising gas prices and the cost of heating my home, I'm looking at having at a thousand or two dollars less change changling in my pockets over the next year. It's all going to energy companies. I hope the energy folk spend it all in this country. Maybe on bigger homes. They won't need mortgages, obviously. Just plop down the price in cash.

The money we all give to energy companies also means their's less discretionary income floating around to invest. You kind of wonder whether this will mean that workers start putting less money into 401Ks. Which brings less money into funds to buy stocks. Which means more supply, less demand. Which leads to lower P/Es and a falling market.

Man, but it's tough not to be bleak right now. Yet the Dow doesn't seem to have caught the chill in the air at all. It's even up today. Mr. Market seems pretty confident about the future, I guess.

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